Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 36.801301 40.053615 43.658439 47.990576 53.111165 59.044330 66.551828
2025-07-20 31.682389 35.820224 40.732222 47.125924 55.444169 66.243392 81.984290
2025-07-27 30.038960 34.937208 41.064764 49.572630 61.599338 78.976194 108.364793
2025-08-03 28.360031 33.659059 40.546584 50.592591 65.777394 89.855594 136.897176
2025-08-10 26.767507 32.256159 39.601722 50.741009 68.536605 99.164785 168.085164
2025-08-17 24.992744 30.419643 37.824770 49.355642 68.509030 103.540525 191.995690
2025-08-24 23.477412 28.804715 36.188710 47.939856 68.112443 107.036753 216.770067
2025-08-31 23.098378 28.719006 36.717235 49.931007 73.979637 125.286095 308.135919
2025-09-07 21.947093 27.452531 35.381704 48.712243 73.666524 129.698707 358.694678
2025-09-14 20.971044 26.377043 34.249911 47.703545 73.573433 134.673468 424.931815
2025-09-21 19.792969 24.947744 32.486675 45.450961 70.642751 131.359339 439.281240
2025-09-28 19.149303 24.268805 31.839454 45.075467 71.524830 138.912661 555.215633
2025-10-05 18.895933 24.274774 32.452423 47.368183 79.472653 175.392802 1512.273848
2025-10-12 17.990111 23.263946 31.391764 46.535633 80.424095 191.359590 3904.711064
2025-10-19 17.777725 23.282870 31.994582 48.929130 90.016043 256.238714 NaN
2025-10-26 17.338825 22.912576 31.901182 49.926451 96.481944 324.155857 NaN
2025-11-02 16.806703 22.356731 31.433791 50.071547 100.647224 394.120147 NaN
2025-11-09 16.098992 21.479307 30.335092 48.716923 99.774245 423.561204 NaN
2025-11-16 15.443964 20.655080 29.276794 47.331939 98.459696 449.097331 NaN
2025-11-23 15.306335 20.659956 29.694754 49.279591 109.236398 706.020976 NaN
2025-11-30 14.760487 19.966404 28.793359 48.087599 108.316448 778.677994 NaN
2025-12-07 14.278303 19.358044 28.013710 47.100709 107.940070 879.995151 NaN
2025-12-14 13.669266 18.517688 26.764985 44.895674 102.264706 796.500244 NaN